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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 40

2016-09-01 17:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011459 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 Despite a degraded satellite presentation, a 1302 UTC ASCAT-B pass over Gaston showed a large area of hurricane force winds southeast of the center and peak winds of 75 kt, and that will serve as the initial intensity for this advisory. Weakening is forecast as Gaston moves across the 26C SST isotherm later today and the vertical shear is expected to increase to 20-30 kt by 48 hours. Gaston should fall below hurricane strength tonight and gradually lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours. The low is forecast to dissipate by 72 hours, as shown in the global models. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the new IVCN intensity consensus aid. The hurricane is moving quickly east-northeastward, 070/21. Gaston will continue moving generally east-northeastward within the mid- latitude westerlies through dissipation. The new NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and the multi-model consensus TVCN. Based on the current forecast, the Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 37.6N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.4N 37.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 39.1N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 39.7N 29.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 41.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 39

2016-09-01 10:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010856 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 Gaston has weakened a little overnight. The cloud pattern has lost some organization with the convection more asymmetric and not quite as deep as it was several hours ago. The Dvorak CI-numbers have decreased to 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the initial wind speed is lowered to 80 kt based on that data. Gaston is expected to cross the 26 deg C isotherm later today while it remains in an environment of moderate southwesterly shear. These conditions should cause steady weakening, and Gaston will likely fall below hurricane strength by tonight. Continued weakening is forecast when the cyclone moves near the Azores on Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity model consensus. The hurricane is moving quickly east-northeastward about 17 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day while Gaston remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A decrease in forward speed is predicted after that time due to the approach of a large extratropical low. Gaston will likely be absorbed by the extratropical low in about 3 days. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed models. Based on the current forecast, the Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the western-most islands of Flores and Corvo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 36.8N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 37.9N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 38.7N 35.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 39.2N 31.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 40.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 15

2016-09-01 10:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010855 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Hermine and measured 850-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt, but the SFMR winds are a little bit lower. These strong winds measured by the hurricane hunter plane are confined to the eastern half of the circulation. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. The lowest pressure estimated from the plane was 996 mb. The NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one, and brings Hermine to hurricane strength near landfall. This forecast continues to be based primarily on the intensity consensus model IVCN. Once inland, Hermine should weaken, however, most of the global models expand the area of tropical storm force winds on the eastern semicircle, and so does the official forecast. By the end of the forecast period, most of the global models suggest strengthening, but by then Hermine is expected to be an extratropical cyclone located offshore the U.S. east coast. Hermine moved very little during the past couple of hours, but a recent fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicates that the cyclone has begun to move toward the north-northeast or 020 degrees at 10 kt. Hermine is already located at the base of a mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone on a general north to northeast track with a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN, primarily during the first 2 to 3 days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move little while it interacts with an upper-level trough as indicated by the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 27.8N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 30.0N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0600Z 34.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/0600Z 36.5N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0600Z 38.0N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0600Z 38.0N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

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Remnants of EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 16

2016-09-01 10:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010832 TCDAT3 REMNANTS OF EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 Deep convection is now displaced more than 100 nm east of the location suspected to be the center of the tropical depression. However, the 0224Z ASCAT scatterometer overpass showed that the system has opened up into a trough. Thus the system is no longer considered to be a tropical cyclone. Maximum winds continue to be around 25 kt, associated with the remnants of the tropical cyclone. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 38.2N 69.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 38

2016-09-01 05:17:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010317 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST WED AUG 31 2016 Gaston's infrared satellite pattern has changed little since the previous advisory. The eye remains ragged but clear, and cold convective tops continue in all quadrants. Recent microwave imagery, however, does show that the southwestern eyewall is now open, and there are some indications that the circulation is becoming tilted due to west-southwesterly shear. Still, the initial intensity remains 90 kt based on a blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, which is also supported by the latest CI estimate from the objective ADT. The hurricane is expected to be over sea surface temperatures warmer than 26C for another 12-18 hours while vertical shear is forecast to be at or above 20 kt for the next few days. Therefore, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated, and Gaston is forecast to lose hurricane intensity in about 36 hours while it approaches the western Azores. After that time, continued weakening is expected, and Gaston is likely to become a remnant low in about 72 hours after it has passed the Azores and loses its deep convection over very cold water. Dissipation is still expected by day 4. The intensity models are in very good agreement on the weakening trend, and the updated NHC forecast is close to the intensity consensus. The initial motion remains northeastward but a little faster at 055/17 kt. Gaston is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and it is expected to turn east-northeastward and accelerate during the next 24 hours. After that time, Gaston could slow down a bit while it moves across the Azores, and then turn back toward the northeast when it becomes a remnant low. Like the intensity guidance, the track models are in very good agreement, and no significant changes were needed from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 36.0N 45.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 37.2N 42.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 38.2N 37.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 38.7N 33.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 39.2N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 42.1N 24.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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