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RICAP 8 Discussion Draft Summary
2016-09-14 22:38:06| PortlandOnline
4-page handout summarizing items included in the Discussion Draft PDF Document, 560kbCategory: RICAP 8
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-09-14 22:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142033 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 Ian does not look much like a tropical storm this afternoon with all of its convection well removed from a rather broad and disorganized low-level circulation. In fact, Ian has some subtropical characteristics, including its collocation with an upper-level low and a large radius of maximum wind. However, these features could be temporary. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on continuity. An uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 350/15. Ian should be steered northward and northeastward during the next day or so as it moves around the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast as it gets picked up by a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from Atlantic Canada. Similar to the previous advisory, a slight westward shift in the official track forecast was required mostly due to the updated initial position. Otherwise, the forecast is a bit faster than the model consensus. Ian does not have much time left to intensify as a tropical cyclone since it should move over colder waters by tomorrow evening. It does have a narrow window of lower shear during the next day, although given its current poor organization and structure, no significant intensification is forecast during that time. Ian is then expected to lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours and be absorbed by another extratropical low by 72 hours. The only significant change to the intensity forecast is for a stronger extratropical phase, but not quite as strong as the 12 UTC GFS solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 32.9N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 34.8N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 38.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 42.7N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1800Z 49.0N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-14 17:01:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141501 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 800 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 A combination of conventional and microwave satellite data indicates there has been little change in the structure of Orlene since the last advisory, with the low-level center still displaced to the south of the upper-level center. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are unchanged since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 70 kt. However, objective estimates suggest this could be a bit generous. There is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast. Vertical shear is decreasing over Orlene and it is forecast to remain low during the next several days. However, the tropical cyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a drier and more stable air mass. These environmental conditions are expected to result in a gradual weakening during the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is changed little since the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with the IVCN intensity model consensus. The initial motion is now a westward drift of 270/2. A faster motion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the next 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to upper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian Islands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little south of, the previous track in agreement with the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.1N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 20.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.8N 121.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 123.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 19.5N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 21.5N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-09-14 16:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 141450 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 Ian's center has lost some definition and appears to have re-formed north of the feature we had been tracking. The center remains exposed to the south and southeast of the deep convection due to almost 30 kt of vertical shear. Based on the Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB, the estimated maximum winds remain 45 kt. Due to the center's re-formation, the initial motion is a faster 355/17 kt. However, unless the center jumps again, this motion is expected to stabilize back to around 14 kt in the next 12 hours. A mid-/upper-level low to the west of Ian and a mid-tropospheric high to the east should steer the cyclone northward and north- northeastward during the next day or so. After that time, Ian is expected to accelerate toward the northeast as it gets picked up by a progressive mid-latitude trough moving eastward from Atlantic Canada. The new track guidance agrees on this scenario, although a slight westward shift in the official track forecast was required, probably due to the updated initial position. The new NHC forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. Although the vertical shear is expected to decrease only slightly, marginally warm waters and Ian's baroclinic interaction with the mid-/upper-level low to its west are expected to foster some strengthening during the next 36 hours. Ian is then expected to lose the last of its tropical characteristics and become extratropical by 48 hours and then be absorbed by another extratropical low by 72 hours. This forecast follows guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center and is closest to the scenario shown by the ECMWF model. There is still some uncertainty in this thinking, however, since the GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models make Ian the dominant extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.4N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 33.7N 52.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 36.7N 51.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 40.2N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 45.4N 39.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-14 16:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141447 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Julia is estimated to be maintaining 35-kt winds, based on WSR 88-D Doppler velocity data, well offshore of the coast. Since the system will continue to interact with land, weakening is forecast and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest D-SHIPS and LGEM guidance. There is a possibility, however, that the system could strengthen if it moves far enough out over water. The center of Julia may be reforming closer to the Georgia coast, although the surface observations are not yet definitive, and the initial motion is a highly uncertain 030/5 kt. The tropical cyclone is likely to remain in weak steering currents near the axis of the subtropical ridge, and the track guidance models indicate that some erratic motion is likely over the next couple of days. The official forecast shows a very slow motion after 12 hours, and is east of the previous NHC track. The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 10 inches along portions of the South Carolina coastline. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.4N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 32.2N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 32.3N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 32.3N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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