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RICAP 8 Discussion Draft is now available for public review and comment
2016-08-30 23:59:15| PortlandOnline
Code improvements address land divisions, property line adjustments, trees, removal of Historic Resource Inventory listings and more
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-30 23:03:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 302103 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 The system has still not become better organized on satellite imagery, with limited evidence of banding features. There is an apparent mid-level center of circulation located south of the low-level center. The highest flight-level wind reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 34 kt and the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 30 kt, which continues to be used for the advisory intensity. There is some evidence of increasing upper-level outflow to the north. The latest intensity guidance is a little more aggressive than before, with a little less shear forecast over the northern Gulf coast region. The official intensity forecast has been increased slightly in comparison to the previous one, and is a little below the latest model consensus. Given that a couple of the models show the system becoming a hurricane, and the 48-hour forecast point implies tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, it is prudent to issue a hurricane watch for a portion of the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast at this time. Fixes from the NOAA aircraft show that the initial motion is northwestward, or 320/4 kt. The global models continue to show a mid-tropospheric trough developing over the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north and north-northeast in 24-48 hours. The dynamical track guidance models have shifted a bit to the west compared to their earlier runs, as has the multi-model consensus. Therefore the official track forecast is also west of the previous one. It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 24.4N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 26.0N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 27.5N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 36.5N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 39.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-08-30 22:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 302049 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Satellite images indicate that the depression remains disorganized. The low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned, with convection continuing only sporadically near the center. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt. Despite the lack of strengthening, the environment appears conducive for some intensification eventually over the next couple of days while the depression moves near the Gulf Stream in light-to-moderate shear. The intensity forecast is reduced a little in the short term to account for the current disorganized structure, then no change was made to the remainder of the intensity forecast. The system should become an extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone dissipates within a frontal zone. The cyclone has been drifting recently, but it should start a slow north-northeastward motion by tonight as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The mid-latitude flow then increases, which should cause the depression to accelerate northeastward. Model guidance is tightly clustered, and little change was made to the previous forecast. Model guidance indicates the system is nearing its closest point of approach to the Outer Banks. We have elected to continue the Tropical Storm Warning for this advisory, but this could be lowered tonight if a more consistent motion away from the coast becomes established. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 34.4N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 35.0N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 36.3N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 38.3N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 45.0N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-08-30 22:35:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302035 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016 The weakening trend of Lester appears to have stopped for the time being. Satellite images show a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye surrounded by a solid ring of deep convection. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 5.5/102 kt and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are 5.9/112 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held at 105 kt for this advisory. The environment ahead of Lester is not hostile, but slightly lower sea-surface temperatures and drier air along its track should cause the hurricane to gradually weaken through the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one and stays near the intensity model consensus. The major hurricane is now moving a little south of due west at 12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge over the east-central subtropical Pacific should continue to steer Lester westward for the next couple of days. After that time, a slight turn to the west-northwest is predicted, due to possible binary interaction with Madeline, when Lester moves near or just north of the Hawaiian Islands in 3-5 days. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.8N 135.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 17.8N 137.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 17.9N 139.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.1N 141.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.5N 143.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 19.9N 148.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 21.5N 153.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 23.3N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-08-30 22:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 302033 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 Gaston appears to have strengthened some more. The hurricane has been maintaining a large and well-defined eye with mesovorticies within it. In addition, a ring of deep convection surrounds the eye with little evidence of dry slots. The Dvorak intensity estimates have increased from both TAFB and SAB, and they support raising the initial wind speed a little more to 95 kt. Gaston is likely to maintain this intensity, or perhaps strengthen a little more, in the short term while it remains in generally favorable environmental conditions. The global models indicate that westerly shear should increase over Gaston on Wednesday, and that should promote a gradual weakening trend. More pronounced weakening is expected when Gaston moves over cool waters in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one at 12 h, based on the higher initial wind speed, but is otherwise largely unchanged. The initial motion is now 065/9 kt. A faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slower forward speed is forecast beyond a few days when a large extratropical low nears Gaston and eventually absorbs it in about 5 days. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, and brings a weaker Gaston near the Azores Islands in about 3 days. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of this system. The wind radii were modified based on ASCAT and AMSU data from earlier today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 32.6N 51.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 33.4N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 34.9N 47.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 36.6N 43.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 37.9N 39.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 38.8N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 40.0N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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