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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-08-30 04:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300233 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 The increase in convective organization that occurred earlier today has not persisted, and the convection associated with Tropical Depression Eight is currently minimal and disorganized. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt, pending the arrival of the next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0900 UTC. The depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear environment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest strengthening is possible if convection can persist near the center. After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due to baroclinic influences as the cyclone begin to interact with a frontal zone. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the LGEM model. It should be noted that the system could dissipate before 72 hours as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/4. The depression should continue a slow northwestward to northward motion toward a break in the subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so. After that, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching baroclinic trough. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 33.8N 74.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 34.2N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 34.9N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 41.5N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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RICAP 8 Discussion Draft

2016-08-30 01:15:55| PortlandOnline

Draft of code amendments for public outreach PDF Document, 2,301kbCategory: RICAP 8

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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-08-29 23:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 292150 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH OCEAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better organized this afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to the north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity at 30 kt at this time. Given the system's currently disorganized appearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much strengthening in the short term. Since the cyclone will be moving over very warm waters and in an environment of moderate westerly shear, however, gradual intensification is expected during the next couple of days. When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast, increasing upper-level winds should limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4 kt. There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution. In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging over the southeastern United States. This feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida. The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as tomorrow morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 24.0N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 29.3N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 35.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-08-29 22:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 292057 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better organized this afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to the north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity at 30 kt at this time. Given the system's currently disorganized appearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much strengthening in the short term. Since the cyclone will be moving over very waters and in an environment of moderate westerly shear, however, gradual intensification is expected during the next couple of days. When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast, increasing upper-level winds should limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4 kt. There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution. In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging over the southeastern United States. This feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida. The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as tomorrow morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 24.0N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 29.3N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 35.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-08-29 22:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 292051 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Satellite and radar images suggest that the depression is becoming better organized. Convection has formed in the northwestern quadrant, with some banding features in the northern semicircle of the cyclone. Aircraft data, however, show that the pressure has stayed the same as 6 hours ago and the winds have not increased. Thus the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. This burst of convection should eventually lead to some intensification as environmental factors (less shear and more moisture) are forecast to become a little more favorable. Most of the guidance are in good agreement on this scenario on gradual intensification, and the latest forecast is close to the previous one and the model consensus. The depression is still moving northwestward at about 6 kt. There has been no change to the synoptic reasoning from the last advisory cycle. The cyclone should slow down and turn northward tomorrow as it reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast. In about 36 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The latest NHC prediction is very close to the previous one, between the model consensus and the GFS model. The cyclone should dissipate or be absorbed within a large extratropical cyclone in about 4 days. Due to the close pass of the cyclone to the Outer Banks, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 33.6N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 34.0N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 34.6N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 35.4N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 36.7N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 40.5N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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