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Tropical Storm LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-08-25 16:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251432 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 900 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 The cloud pattern of Lester continues to gradually become better organized, with developing convective banding features surrounding a small CDO and expanding upper-level outflow. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory intensity. The global models forecast a low-shear environment for Lester over the next several days, and the cyclone should remain over SSTs warmer than 27 deg C throughout most of the forecast period. Steady strengthening is forecast until late in period when Lester approaches marginal SSTs. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN. Geostationary and microwave satellite fixes yield a motion estimate of about 295/10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains about the same as in the previous advisory. Throughout the forecast period, the tropical cyclone should remain embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad mid-tropospheric ridge over the eastern North Pacific. A gradual turn toward the west, at a slightly faster pace than shown in the previous official forecast, is anticipated. The NHC track prediction is very close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 16.6N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 17.5N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.7N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 17.9N 122.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-25 10:35:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250834 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 For much of yesterday afternoon and evening, the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk unmanned aircraft flew a mission through Gaston. On the aircraft's last pass through the storm, it released a dropsonde at 0243 UTC that measured a mean boundary layer wind of 80 kt and an average wind of 77 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding near the center of the cyclone. These numbers both support an intensity of 65 kt, and consequently Gaston was upgraded to a hurricane. The sonde reported a minimum pressure of 995 mb with a 69-kt surface wind, which equates to a central pressure of about 988 mb. Despite Gaston becoming a hurricane, microwave data indicate that the cyclone is tilted due to 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly shear. The shear is expected to increase further during the next 12-24 hours when Gaston moves around the eastern side of an upper-level low, and as a result, the hurricane is forecast to weaken back to a tropical storm later today. The shear is then forecast to subside in about 48 hours, and with sea surface temperatures expected to increase, Gaston is likely to reintensify during the latter part of the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is higher than the previous forecast during the first 48 hours primarily to account for the higher initial intensity. After 48 hours, the official forecast is unchanged and closely follows the SHIPS model and the ICON intensity consensus. Gaston continues to move northwestward, or 310 degrees at 15 kt, along the southwestern edge of a mid-tropospheric high. A fairly quick northwestward motion should continue for the next 36 hours, with a turn toward the west-northwest expected by 48 hours when Gaston moves around the north side of the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low. Gaston is then expected to recurve toward the north-northeast by day 5 as it moves through a break in the ridge and toward the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in agreement on this general scenario, although the ECMWF model is a little bit slower and to the east of the other models, showing a sharper turn by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is therefore a little east of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5 and lies closest to the HWRF and the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 19.5N 43.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 21.1N 44.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 23.4N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 25.3N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 26.7N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 29.1N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 31.0N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 32.5N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-08-25 04:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250233 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies, recent ASCAT measurements, and numerous dropsondes from the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the initial intensity of Gaston remains at 60 kt. Strong upper-level westerlies blowing around the base of an upper low to the northwest of Gaston are already affecting the symmetry of the cyclone, and the low-level center is on the western edge of the convection. This strong westerly shear is expected to last for about 36 hours, resulting in some weakening. Most of the global models move the upper low toward the southwest, and in about 2 days, Gaston will again be in a favorable environment for intensification. On this basin, the NHC forecast weakens the cyclone during the next 24 to 36 hours, and then calls for Gaston to intensify and reach hurricane strength over the warm waters of the central Atlantic. The forecast follows closely the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus. Gaston is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 15 kt steered by the flow between the subtropical high and the same low that is causing the shear. As the low moves southwestward and the ridge to the north of the cyclone amplifies, Gaston should turn a little more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast is the middle of the guidance envelope and is basically on top of the latest multi-model consensus. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 18.6N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 20.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 22.3N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 24.5N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 26.3N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 28.5N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 30.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 32.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-25 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250231 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression has become a little better organized during the past several hours with the center of circulation located between two curved bands to its north and south. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen during the next 3 to 4 days while it remains over warm water, in a moist environment, and in moderate wind shear conditions. Some weakening could occur by the end of the forecast period when the system moves over cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the intensity model consensus. The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt away from the coast of Mexico. A decrease in forward speed is expected on Thursday when the cyclone moves closer to a break in the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to rebuild to the north of the cyclone this weekend, and that should cause the system to move westward at a faster pace. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.7N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.8N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.6N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 17.8N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 17.9N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 18.1N 129.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-24 22:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242035 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located well southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, now has a well-defined center and enough convective organization to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. The environment appears favorable for steady intensification during the first 3 days, as the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs above 28C but the shear remains 10 kt or higher much of that time. Ocean temperatures cool a little at days 4 and 5 and the mid-level atmosphere dries out a bit, which could result in some slow weakening. The NHC forecast is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/12. The cyclone will be steered generally west-northwestward for the next 48 hours with a decrease in forward speed along the southwestern side of a weakening mid-level ridge. Later in the period, a westward acceleration is expected as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the tropical cyclone. In general the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although there is some cross-track spread, with the HWRF and ECMWF to the south and the COAMPS-TC and especially the GFDL farther north. The NHC forecast lies south of the TVCN multi-model consensus and in between the GFS and the latest GFS/ECMWF blend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.2N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.9N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.5N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.1N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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