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Post-Tropical Cyclone NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 57

2016-10-18 10:55:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 180855 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-18 10:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NICOLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 18 the center of NICOLE was located near 47.1, -39.5 with movement NNE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone NICOLE Public Advisory Number 57

2016-10-18 10:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016 ...NICOLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.1N 39.5W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole was located near latitude 47.1 North, longitude 39.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by another low pressure area Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells associated with Nicole will affect the United States east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, and the Azores islands for the next few days, creating dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. These swells are also likely to reach Europe and the northwest coast of Africa in a day or two. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Post-Tropical Cyclone NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 57

2016-10-18 10:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180854 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 39.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 300SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 720SE 840SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 39.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 51.7N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...180NE 240SE 210SW 180NW. 34 KT...360NE 420SE 360SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 57.0N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...240NE 240SE 300SW 300NW. 34 KT...540NE 540SE 480SW 540NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 62.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...240NE 240SE 420SW 0NW. 34 KT...480NE 540SE 540SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.1N 39.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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