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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-16 22:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE NICOLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH SEAS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 16 the center of NICOLE was located near 39.7, -45.6 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 51

2016-10-16 22:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 162044 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 ...HURRICANE NICOLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH SEAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.7N 45.6W ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 45.6 West. Nicole is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue into Monday. A faster north-northeast to northeastward motion is expected to occur by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles (705 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells associated with Nicole will continue to affect Bermuda, the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward, and the coastline of Atlantic Canada over the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole should begin to affect the United States east coast south of the Carolinas, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands in a day or two. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 51

2016-10-16 22:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 16 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 162043 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC SUN OCT 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 45.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 70 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 50 KT.......130NE 150SE 180SW 130NW. 34 KT.......380NE 330SE 330SW 380NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 660SE 960SW 720NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 45.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 40.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 180SW 130NW. 34 KT...400NE 360SE 360SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 42.6N 42.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 110NW. 34 KT...420NE 400SE 380SW 480NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 46.3N 39.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...450NE 450SE 400SW 550NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 51.3N 37.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...480NE 510SE 430SW 650NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 59.6N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...360NE 400SE 420SW 600NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 50

2016-10-16 16:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161456 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 Nicole appears to be maintaining its strength this morning. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly better organized than several hours ago. A large ragged eye of the cyclone is still evident in visible satellite images, surrounded by patches of cold cloud tops. The initial wind speed is held at 75 kt, which is a little higher than the latest Dvorak estimates. Although Nicole is over 24 deg C SSTs and is headed for even colder waters during the next day or two, there should be enough instability for the continuation of some deep convection near the center of the cyclone. Therefore, only slow weakening is expected before Nicole completes the transition to an extratropical cyclone in about two days when it is absorbed by an upper-level trough. Nicole is moving slowly east-southeastward as the hurricane is now largely cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow. A slow northeastward motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by an acceleration to the north-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The expected turn and increase in forward speed are due to the approach of the aforementioned large upper-level trough that is currently located over eastern Canada. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is a little slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. The initial wind radii were adjusted based on a 1230 UTC ASCAT-B pass. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) was used for the forecast wind radii. The primary hazard associated with Nicole will be high seas. Recent wave-height altimeter data indicate that a large area of 20-ft seas exist near the hurricane. In addition, swells from Nicole are spreading far from the system, and High Seas Forecasts from OPC and TAFB suggest that long-period swells will continue to radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 39.1N 46.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 39.5N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 41.0N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 43.8N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 48.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1200Z 58.6N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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