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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-17 22:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Oct 2016 20:49:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Oct 2016 20:46:34 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 55
2016-10-17 22:48:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172048 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 Although Nicole is still a hurricane with a large ragged eye, it is is steadily losing its appearance as a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery. During the past six hours, the cloud pattern has become elongated northeast-to-southwest and convection has weakened considerably in the eyewall with only a small patch of cloud tops to -50 deg C remaining in the southeastern quadrant. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at T4.0/65 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory. Nicole is currently located over 21 deg C SSTs and the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of less than 18 deg C in 12 h, which should extinguish any remaining instability and convection. As a result, Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or Tuesday morning. The initial motion estimate is 040/22 kt. Nicole is getting picked up by an approaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough. As the amplifying trough digs to the southwest of Nicole, the hurricane is forecast to continue to accelerate toward the northeast tonight, followed by north-northeastward turn on Tuesday, which will take the cyclone over the cold waters of the far North Atlantic during the next three days. Nicole is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low off of the east coast of Greenland by 72 h. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is in best agreement with the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. The main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 42.7N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 45.4N 40.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1800Z 51.0N 37.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0600Z 56.5N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 61.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 55
2016-10-17 22:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 172047 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-17 22:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE MOVING OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL LOW LATER TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 17 the center of NICOLE was located near 42.7, -42.6 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 55
2016-10-17 22:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 172046 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 ...NICOLE MOVING OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL LOW LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 42.6W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 42.7 North, longitude 42.6 West. Nicole is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest with a significant increase in forward speed is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Nicole is expected to lose its tropical characteristics later tonight. Nicole is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells associated with Nicole will affect the United States east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, and the Azores islands for the next several days, creating dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. These swells are also likely to reach Europe and the northwest coast of Africa in a day or two. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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