je.st

Home › nicole

Tag: nicole

Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-11 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NICOLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 11 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.4, -66.4 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Tags: summary nicole hurricane at5al152016

Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 31

2016-10-11 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 112037 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 ...NICOLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 66.4W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 66.4 West. Nicole is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwest to north- northwest motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed are expected Wednesday morning, followed by a northeast turn late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night and pass near Bermuda on Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be near major hurricane strength by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda by Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number public advisory nicole

Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

2016-10-11 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 112037 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 1 5( 6) 45(51) 39(90) 3(93) X(93) X(93) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 49(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number speed wind nicole

Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 31

2016-10-11 22:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 112036 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 66.4W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 180SE 120SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 66.4W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 66.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.0N 66.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.8N 66.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N 64.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 38.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 41.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 41.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 66.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number advisory nicole forecast