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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-11 05:07:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 02:38:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 03:04:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-10-11 04:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 110237 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016 The vertical wind shear that has been hampering the development of Nicole has diminished during the past 6-12 hours. In response, the cyclone's convective pattern has become better organized and now is comprised of a curved band over the eastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The initial motion is now 350/5. During the next 12-24 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave trough currently seen in water vapor imagery north of Nicole is going to move eastward with a shortwave ridge taking its place north of the tropical cyclone. This should cause Nicole to turn northwestward for a time. After that, the ridge moves eastward in advance of a second mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the United States. This evolution should lead to Nicole turning northward and then northeastward with an increase in forward speed as it recurves into the westerlies. The forward motion may slow near the 120 hour time as Nicole becomes a large cut-off extratropical low over the northern Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous track. The new forecast has the center of Nicole passing near or over Bermuda between 48 and 72 hours. Nicole is forecast to be in a light shear environment over increasing sea surface temperatures for the next 36-48 hours, and at the moment none of the low-level cooler air brought southward in the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew is entraining into the system. However, water vapor imagery shows a lot of dry air just northwest of the tropical cyclone, and this could slow intensification in an otherwise favorable environment. After 48 hours, Nicole is likely to weaken due to increasing shear, although the dynamical models forecast increasing values of upper-level divergence that should slow the weakening. Extratropical transition is expected to occur at about 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is almost the same as the previous forecast and lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 26.8N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 27.4N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 28.0N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 28.9N 66.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 30.5N 66.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 34.5N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 39.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 42.0N 53.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2016-10-11 04:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 110236 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 33(46) 40(86) 1(87) X(87) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 42(54) 1(55) X(55) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 1(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-11 04:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE MOVING NORTHWARD AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 10 the center of NICOLE was located near 26.8, -65.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 28
2016-10-11 04:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 110236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016 ...NICOLE MOVING NORTHWARD AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 65.5W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Bermuda on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 65.5 West. Nicole is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Tuesday, with a turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nicole is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole should increase on Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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