je.st
news
Tag: nicole
Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-11 19:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Oct 11 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.3, -66.3 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tags: summary
nicole
hurricane
at5al152016
Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 30A
2016-10-11 19:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 111749 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 200 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 ...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 66.3W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 66.3 West. Nicole is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwest to north-northwest motion is expected today. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a northeast turn on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night and pass near Bermuda Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda by Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
advisory
nicole
Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-10-11 16:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 111447 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with several bands of convection wrapping around the center. Recent microwave imagery has revealed a well-defined low-level eye feature and there are hints of a ragged banding eye forming in last few visible satellite pictures. Based on the increase in organization the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Nicole, and the data they collect should provide a better estimate of the cyclone intensity and size this afternoon. The shear that has been plaguing Nicole during the past several days has weakened, and is expected to remain low during the next day or so. This, along with warm waters along the forecast track, should allow for strengthening during the 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole is predicted to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Later in the forecast period, some weakening is predicted due to cooler waters and increasing shear, but Nicole is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory, and is closest to the SHIPS and GFDL model guidance. The tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt. Nicole is forecast to turn northward into a break in the subtropical ridge that is being caused by a mid-latitude trough that is currently passing to the north of Bermuda. As Nicole approaches Bermuda, it will reach the mid-latitude westerly flow, which should cause a turn toward the northeast and some increase in forward speed. The track guidance has come into much better agreement on this scenario since yesterday, and the updated NHC track forecast is near the middle of the now tightly clustered guidance. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Bermuda this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 27.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 27.7N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 28.6N 66.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 30.2N 66.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 32.2N 65.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 36.8N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 40.5N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1200Z 41.8N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-11 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 14:47:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 14:45:32 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
nicole
Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2016-10-11 16:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 111446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 1 4( 5) 28(33) 47(80) 11(91) 1(92) X(92) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 16(60) X(60) X(60) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 12(33) X(33) X(33) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Sites : [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] next »