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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 29A
2016-10-11 13:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 111145 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 800 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 ...NICOLE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 66.0W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Bermuda later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 66.0 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion should continue today. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a northeast turn late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nicole is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole should increase on Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-11 11:07:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 08:36:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 09:04:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 29
2016-10-11 10:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 110835 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 The cloud pattern has not become any better organized during the past several hours. The low-level center is located on the northwestern edge of the thunderstorm activity and the Dvorak estimates have remained steady. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. The wind radii were decreased based on recent ASCAT passes. Nicole is expected to move over warm waters and into weaker shear conditions during the next 48 hours. This environment should result in strengthening and Nicole is expected to become a hurricane during the next 24 hours. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus, which is not as aggressive as the GFS and the ECMWF intensity forecasts. After that time, the cyclone should become embedded within very strong wind shear, and a gradual weakening process should begin. By the end of the forecast period, Nicole should have become a large extratropical low. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northwest or 335 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are weak and Nicole should turn toward the north and move slowly around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. By 48 hours, the cyclone will become embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow and should turn to the northeast with a some increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 27.1N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 27.5N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 28.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 29.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 31.5N 66.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 36.0N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 40.0N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 42.0N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2016-10-11 10:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 110834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 47(65) 23(88) 1(89) X(89) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 31(55) X(55) X(55) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-11 10:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 11 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.1, -65.9 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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