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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-04 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-04 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA CONTINUES WEAKENING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Hilda was located near 18.4, -125.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 18
2021-08-04 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...HILDA CONTINUES WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 125.5W ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 125.5 West. Hilda is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, with a slight increase in forward speed expected on Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is forecast to become a tropical depression early Thursday and a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-04 04:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 125.5W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 125.5W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.7N 129.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-03 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032039 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Deep convection in Hilda's central dense overcast has been weakening today, with the low-level center still on the northern side of the cloud mass. Satellite classifications have decreased since the last advisory, and a partial ASCAT pass around 1700 UTC showed maximum winds of about 45 kt. Assuming some undersampling and that the eastern radius-of-maximum winds could have been missed, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. A combination of shear, cool water temperatures, and a more stable environment should keep Hilda on a weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Model guidance continues to be in very good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Hilda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The storm continues moving northwestward, now a little slower at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over southern California should build westward during the next few days as a mid-latitude trough along 135W moves northward out of the area. This pattern is expected to turn Hilda west-northwestward tomorrow and accelerate the cyclone in that direction as it encounters stronger low- to mid-level flow. Model guidance is a shade faster and to the left of the last cycle, and the new NHC track forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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