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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-03 16:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.5W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.5W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-03 11:00:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 09:00:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 09:22:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-03 11:00:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030900 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Overnight, Hilda's deep convection has continued to pulse, but primarily in the southern semicircle of the circulation as 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear continues displacing this activity downshear. A helpful ASCAT-B pass at 0602 UTC indicated the center of Hilda was located on the northern edge of the convective cirrus canopy, with the instrument also indicating a peak wind retrieval of 53 kt. The most recent microwave imagery concurs with this assessment and also indicates the earlier eyewall is no longer well-defined. While the 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt, the most recent objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS was down to T3.5/55 kt. Given the devolving convective structure seen on microwave, the initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, leaning towards the lower intensity estimates. Hilda continues to move slowly northwestward, at 315/7 kt as it remains positioned southwest of a mid-level ridge centered over southern California. Over the next several days, this ridge is forecast to build westward over the East Pacific as a short-wave trough offshore of California lifts out. This synoptic pattern should allow Hilda to gradually bend to the west-northwest and increase its forward motion slightly over the forecast period. Hilda will also become increasingly influenced by low-level ridging, steering the cyclone more westward as it becomes a weak and shallow cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is just a touch south of the previous forecast track, blending the reliable TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Northeasterly vertical wind shear, related to the remaining convective outflow of Ignacio, is expected to keep Hilda on a weakening trend over the next day or so. Even though this shear is expected to subside thereafter, Hilda will also be crossing the 25 degree Celsius sea-surface temperature isotherm in 24 hours. Thus, continued weakening is expected. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA consensus aid closely, showing weakening throughout the forecast period. The tropical cyclone is now expected to degenerate to a remnant low by Friday, when model guidance suggests organized deep-convection will cease. The remnant low is then expected to open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 17.0N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 18.6N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.4N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.0N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.7N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 22.4N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-03 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Hilda was located near 17.0, -123.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-03 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 413 WTPZ33 KNHC 030857 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...HILDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 123.9W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 123.9 West. Hilda is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the west-northwest expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next several days, and Hilda is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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