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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-03 10:57:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030857 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 2 9(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-08-03 10:56:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 433 WTPZ23 KNHC 030856 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 123.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 123.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 123.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.6N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 129.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.7N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.4N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 123.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Hurricane Hilda Graphics
2021-08-03 04:37:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 02:37:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 02:37:37 GMT
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-03 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 Moderate northeasterly wind shear continues to take a toll on Hilda this evening. The upper-level outflow on the northern and eastern sides of the circulation has a sharp edge in satellite imagery. Recent SSMIS microwave data show the structure of Hilda has changed little since earlier today, with a weakness in the upshear portion of the eyewall and a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level centers. The various objective intensity estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial intensity at 65 kt for this advisory. Hilda is moving northwestward, or 315/6 kt, under the influence of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. This general motion is expected to continue through midweek, and the track guidance remains tightly clustered during this period. As Hilda continues weakening and the ridge builds westward, Hilda is forecast to move west-northwestward and then westward within the low-level flow through the rest of the period. However, a complicating factor is the potential for some interaction with the remnants of TD Nine-E, which now have a high chance of redevelopment during the next couple of days. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly poleward once again at day 3 and beyond, bringing it closer to the reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA and accounting for the aforementioned possibility of some interaction between the two systems. Moderate northeasterly shear will persist for the next day or so, and afterwards the cooler sea-surface temperatures along Hilda's forecast track will offset any reduction in shear over the system. Therefore, weakening is expected during the next several days. The official NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above the multi-model consensus aids in the near-term, but then closely follows IVCN and HCCA once Hilda reaches the cooler waters. The system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 96 h, but this transition could occur soon after 72 h based on some of the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 17.1N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.0N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.9N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 20.8N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 22.6N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-08-03 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030235 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 2 5( 7) 14(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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