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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-08-04 22:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 131.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 138.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 128.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-04 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 14:35:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 15:22:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-04 16:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda continues to weaken early this morning due to cool sea-surface temperatures (SST) and modest northerly vertical wind shear. The current intensity is estimated to be 35 kt based on an average of subjective satellite classifications of T2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates of 31 kt and 41 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Hilda is currently moving over sub-25C SSTs with even cooler water and increasing westerly wind shear still ahead of the cyclone. As a result of these unfavorable environmental parameters, Hilda is forecast to weaken further, becoming a depression later today and a remnant low by late tonight or early Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. Hilda has been moving west-northwestward or 295/08 kt. This general motion should continue into Thursday. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north of Hilda is expected to gradually build westward over the next several days, forcing the cyclone and its remnants more westward on Friday and Saturday. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-04 16:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 4 the center of Hilda was located near 19.1, -127.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 20
2021-08-04 16:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 ...HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 127.4W ABOUT 1155 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 127.4 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to become a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low by tonight or on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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