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Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN Graphics
2016-09-29 16:55:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 14:55:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 14:54:30 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-09-29 16:54:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 291453 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 Roslyn has been devoid of deep convection overnight, and the system consists of only a swirl of low clouds. Given the lack of convection, Roslyn has become a post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity is kept at 25 kt based on continuity from earlier scatterometer data. The cyclone should spin down over cool waters and completely dissipate after 24 hours. The motion is north-northwestward or 345/6 kt. A weak low-level ridge to the north and northwest of the system should cause a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest until dissipation. This is the last advisory on Roslyn. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 23.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 30/0000Z 24.1N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1200Z 24.4N 117.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2016-09-29 16:53:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 291453 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)
2016-09-29 16:53:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSLYN BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 29 the center of ROSLYN was located near 23.5, -115.5 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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ep3ep182016
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 17
2016-09-29 16:53:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 291452 TCPEP3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 ...ROSLYN BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 115.5W ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Roslyn was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 115.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to dissipate in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Roslyn. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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