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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 45
2016-10-09 10:55:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090855 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 Satellite and radar imagery indicate that Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, with the closest deep convection now located more than 150 nmi north and northeast of the exposed low-level center. Despite this change in structure, surface observations across eastern North Carolina and an earlier ASCAT pass indicate that strong winds persist northwest through southwest of the center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission completed earlier this morning also indicated that hurricane-force winds were occuring southwest of the center, so the initial intensity is being maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. Surface observations indicate that a cold front should overtake Matthew's center shortly, resulting in extratropical transition. The global and regional models forecast Matthew to slowly weaken over the next 48 hours, and that trend has been followed in the official intensity forecast. In the 48-72 hour time period, Matthew's circulation is expected to dissipate within the frontal system. A combination of satellite and radar imagery, aircraft data, and coastal surface observations indicate that Matthew is moving 065/12 kt. Matthew is now fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow, and this deep-layer steering pattern is expected to move the cyclone east-northeastward and away from the coast of North Carolina today. An eastward motion is expected by tonight and should continue until Matthew dissipates in 48 hours or so. The new NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous track and lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS solutions. Recent observations and the forecast strength of the band of winds over the eastern North Carolina coastal area requires maintaining the Hurricane Watch. Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds continue to shift to the west side of the circulation. The winds are expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during the next 6 to 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of storm surge in these areas. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk. 2. Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 34.9N 75.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 09/1800Z 35.2N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/0600Z 35.4N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1800Z 35.9N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2016-10-09 10:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 090851 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) RALEIGH NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-09 10:50:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS MATTHEW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS... ...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 the center of MATTHEW was located near 34.9, -75.1 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 45
2016-10-09 10:50:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090850 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 ...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS MATTHEW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS... ...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.9N 75.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Little River Inlet to south of Cape Fear has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from Cape Fear to Surf City has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should pass just south of the coast of North Carolina this morning, and then move well east of the North Carolina coast by this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h) were recently measured by a National Ocean Service instrument at Duck, North Carolina. A wind gust of 68 mph (109 km/h) was reported at Elizabeth City, North Carolina, and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at the Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station near Morehead City, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area this morning and then subside by this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches, continues to result in life threatening flooding and flash flooding across the region. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 45
2016-10-09 10:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090850 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 75.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 110SW 30NW. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 270SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 75.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.2N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 35.4N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 35.9N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 190SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.9N 75.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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