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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2016-09-06 16:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 061445 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORTLAND ME 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WORCESTER MA 34 4 2( 6) 3( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BOSTON MA 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 34 4 3( 7) 4(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 34 5 4( 9) 4(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PROVIDENCE RI 34 7 4(11) 5(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 17 8(25) 8(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 15 6(21) 8(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 9 4(13) 7(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 34 12 7(19) 8(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 7 3(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MONTAUK POINT 34 20 6(26) 11(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 32 10(42) 9(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ISLIP NY 50 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 26 11(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 19 9(28) 8(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 18 9(27) 7(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NEWARK NJ 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 16 10(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NWS EARLE NJ 34 30 13(43) 6(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) NWS EARLE NJ 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 7 3(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PHILADELPHIA 34 14 9(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ATLANTIC CITY 34 31 12(43) 4(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 10 6(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 16 8(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) OCEAN CITY MD 34 12 6(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 6 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-06 16:44:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 the center of HERMINE was located near 39.5, -71.9 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Advisory Number 37
2016-09-06 16:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 061443 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND THE COAST FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 71.9W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 71.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 71.7W...POST-TROPICAL FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 39.3N 72.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 39.4N 72.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 39.9N 72.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 40.5N 71.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 71.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-06 14:14:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 12:14:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 09:04:38 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-06 13:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 the center of HERMINE was located near 39.6, -71.7 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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