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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-06 19:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HERMINE... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 the center of HERMINE was located near 39.4, -72.3 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 38
2016-09-06 19:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 ...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HERMINE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 72.3W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal tropical storm warnings are discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 72.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected for the rest of today, followed by a slow and erratic motion tonight and a motion toward the northeast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is likely during the next couple of days, and Hermine may weaken below tropical storm force by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Locally gusty winds over portions of Long Island and southeastern New England should diminish during the next 24 hours. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the coast of Long Island, but they should subside during the next day or so as Hermine exits the area. RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce additional light rainfall amounts not exceeding 1 inch along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coastlines from New Jersey to eastern Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will continue to affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England for another couple of days. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml, and in products issued by local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Advisory Number 38
2016-09-06 19:50:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 061750 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1800 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 72.3W AT 06/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..340NE 180SE 260SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 72.3W AT 06/1800Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 71.7W...POST-TROPICAL FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 39.3N 72.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 39.4N 72.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 39.9N 72.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 40.5N 71.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 72.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-06 17:04:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 14:49:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2016 15:04:37 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 37
2016-09-06 16:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 061446 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 There has been little change in the structure of Hermine since the last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west of the center. Buoy data suggests the circulation is slowly decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models. After that time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system moving eastward across the New England States. Hermine has slowed its forward motion, which is now 270/3. A slow and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is likely during the next 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should move northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. The tropical storm warning for Long island may be discontinued later today if the winds north of the center continue to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 39.5N 71.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 39.3N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 39.4N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/0000Z 39.9N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1200Z 40.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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