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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-10-26 04:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 260250 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR INFORMATION ON THE NON-TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 92.2W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 450SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 92.2W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.8N 90.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.0N 88.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 43.5N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 92.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Graphics
2019-10-20 00:56:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 22:56:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 22:56:06 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-10-19 23:00:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192059 CCA TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 84.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 84.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 84.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NESTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Graphics
2019-10-19 22:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:42:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:42:36 GMT
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posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-10-19 22:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192041 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia. The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt. Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the tightly packed model guidance envelope. Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday, mainly due to the robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200 UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. Key Messages: 1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday. 2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern United States into Sunday. 3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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