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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 9A

2019-10-19 19:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191759 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...NESTOR MAKES LANDFALL ON ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 85.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Ochlockonee River, Florida, and south of the Suwanee River, Florida. All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Suwanee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is accelerating toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a motion toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move farther inland over the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight weakening is expected now that Nestor has moved inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly to the east of the center over Apalachee Bay and also off the Georgia coast. Offshore buoys and coastal marine observing stations along the coast of west-central Florida, including the mouth of Tampa Bay, have recently been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside today and tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. The warning will likely be discontinued later this afternoon. Gale-force winds are expected to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon over east-central Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number public advisory cyclone

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2019-10-19 17:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 15:45:45 GMT

Tags: map potential storm surge

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-10-19 16:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191458 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Nestor has made the transition to a post-tropical extratropical cyclone. There has been no significant convection near the low-level center for more than six hours, and satellite and surface observations indicate that the cyclone's center has merged with a nearby frontal system that lies along the coast of the Florida panhandle. The overall cloud pattern more closely resembles that of an occluded low pressure system now, including a pre-frontal squall line or convergence zone a few hundred nmi east of the low. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to near 50 kt have been reported by some of the buoys and coastal marine stations over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the past few hours. The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on Doppler velocity values of 50-55 kt between 4000-6000 ft ASL located over Apalachee Bay, which approximately equals surface winds of 40-44 kt. The now well-defined low-level center made a brief jog toward the northwest early this morning as an upper-level low passed over the larger cyclonic gyre. However, the motion since that time has been slowly eastward, and the initial motion estimate is now east-northeastward or 075/08 kt. Despite the earlier erratic motion, the latest NHC track model guidance remains in very good agreement on post-tropical Nestor moving northeastward and accelerating over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the North Carolina Outer Banks. By 48 hours, the parent upper-level low is expected to weaken and open up into a shortwave trough, and leave Nestor behind as a weakening extratropical cyclone that dissipates by 96 h east of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track was only nudged a little to the west of the previous advisory due to the more westward initial position, and lies close to an average of the deterministic 0000 UTC and 0600Z GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET model runs. No strengthening is anticipated before Nestor moves inland later this afternoon. Some slight weakening will occur after the center moves inland, but gale-force winds are expected develop over the Atlantic waters of northeastern Florida to the Carolinas this afternoon and tonight, and across the mid-Atlantic U.S. coastal waters on Sunday. The extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days or sooner. Given the non-tropical structure of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and tropical-storm-force and gale-force winds will occur along a large portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center today. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 4 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds will continue across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern United States into Sunday morning. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 29.3N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0000Z 31.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 34.1N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 36.0N 75.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 36.6N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z 36.4N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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