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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-08-26 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 260237 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 Dorian's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since this afternoon, with deep convection oscillating up and down. There are few banding features evident, and the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt and is in agreement with a recent Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for this storm is a challenge, since the numerical guidance depicts a wide range of possibilities. The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile environment associated with an upper-level low near Hispaniola. Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast by the global models over the Caribbean. On the other hand, the statistical/dynamical models DSHIPS and LGEM do not weaken the system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN, but it should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty associated with this forecast. The motion continues to be slightly north of due west or 280/12. Dorian is moving along the southern side of the subtropical ridge. The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. A slight weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the corrected consensus, HCCA prediction and is also very close to the previous NHC track. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information. 2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6 inches. 3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 11.7N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 12.1N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 12.8N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 13.7N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 14.8N 63.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 17.2N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 19.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/0000Z 21.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto
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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-08-26 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 260237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 4(29) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 3(44) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) X(43) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34) X(34) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33) X(33) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 1(36) X(36) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 2(27) X(27) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 28(35) 1(36) X(36) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) SABA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) X(20) X(20) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) AVES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) 16(70) X(70) X(70) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 14(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X 4( 4) 44(48) 5(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 5( 5) 74(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 33(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 5( 5) 55(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 1 75(76) 12(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BARBADOS 50 X 28(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BARBADOS 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRENADA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-26 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.7, -55.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 7
2019-08-26 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 55.3W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Barbados Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Martinique * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be issued on Monday for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 55.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-08-26 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 260236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED ON MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 55.3W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 55.3W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.1N 57.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.8N 59.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.7N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.8N 63.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.2N 67.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.5N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 55.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO
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