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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-08-26 22:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 262040 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 23(43) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 18(46) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 4(49) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 27(49) 1(50) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 9(52) X(52) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 1(47) X(47) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 15(60) X(60) X(60) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 32(58) X(58) X(58) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 11(34) X(34) X(34) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 40(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 29(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SABA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 34 1 10(11) 74(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) AVES 50 X 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) AVES 64 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DOMINICA 34 1 20(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MARTINIQUE 34 3 47(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MARTINIQUE 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 56 41(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT LUCIA 50 27 39(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SAINT LUCIA 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 14 21(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT VINCENT 50 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBADOS 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GRENADA 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 10
2019-08-26 22:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 262040 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 58.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required tonight or Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by satellite and Martinique radar near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move near the Windward Islands this evening and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands on Tuesday, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that Dorian remains a compact tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles tonight or Tuesday and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-08-26 22:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 262039 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * PUERTO RICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 58.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.5N 62.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.1N 70.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 73.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 58.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-26 19:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 17:40:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 15:24:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-26 19:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 12.5, -58.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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