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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-26 10:52:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 08:52:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2019 08:52:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-08-26 10:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 260849 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with Dorian continues to fluctuate curtailing significant strengthening likely due to intrusions of dry air. The overall trend, however, suggests that Dorian is gradually getting better organized with its cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast and some broken outer bands. The initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates. Dorian remains a small storm with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center. During the next couple of days, as Dorian moves through the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean, slow strengthening seems likely due to low wind shear conditions and high SSTs. However, the surrounding dry air around the cyclone should continue to limit the rate of intensification. When Dorian approaches Hispaniola in about 3 days, the models show an increase in shear and those stronger environmental winds and the potential interaction with the rugged terrain of Hispaniola suggest that significant weakening is likely. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the dynamical models that show little or no strengthening and the statistical DSHP and LGEM that show significant intensification. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like Dorian are often challenging to predict. Dorian is moving westward at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The storm should turn west-northwestward today and then northwestward on Wednesday when the cyclone gets closer to the eastern end of the mid- to upper-level low. The track models have shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information. 2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica, with isolated amounts as high as 6 inches. 3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and watches could be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 11.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.2N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 15.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 18.0N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.8N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-26 10:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...COMPACT DORIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 26 the center of Dorian was located near 11.9, -56.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 8
2019-08-26 10:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260847 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019 ...COMPACT DORIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 56.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Martinique * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as early as later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 56.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and and Wednesday while it is over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in Barbados and the Windward Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-08-26 10:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 260847 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 2(28) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 30(41) 1(42) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 24(42) X(42) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 2(38) X(38) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 1(25) X(25) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 31(39) 1(40) X(40) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 1(28) X(28) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 24(39) 1(40) X(40) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 55(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) AVES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 1 9(10) 44(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MARTINIQUE 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 35(36) 44(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 1 25(26) 25(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 2 81(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BARBADOS 50 X 28(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BARBADOS 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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