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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 13
2019-08-27 16:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 271438 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISUSED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 61.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 61.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 61.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 61.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-27 13:48:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 11:48:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 09:24:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-27 13:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN MOVES ACROSS ST. LUCIA INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 14.0, -61.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-08-27 13:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 271147 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN MOVES ACROSS ST. LUCIA INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 61.2W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by surface observations and Martinique radar data near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 61.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Barbados...Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6 inches. Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially where totals exceed 4 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles today. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-27 10:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 08:56:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 09:24:43 GMT
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