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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 40

2019-09-03 10:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030854 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Dorian continues to pound Grand Bahama Island early this morning while moving little. The eyewall has become a little less defined over the past few hours on radar. On infrared satellite images, the eye remains fairly well defined, but the surrounding deep convection is somewhat fragmented. Upper-level outflow is a bit restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Dorian is expected to more or less maintain its intensity for about 36 hours. After that time period, increasing vertical shear should cause gradual weakening. However, the system is likely to remain a major hurricane for the next few days. The official forecast is closest to the latest LGEM guidance. Dorian has been nearly stationary for the past 18 hours, as steering currents in its vicinity have collapsed. The global models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east coast of the United States within the next day or so. Dorian should respond to these changes by beginning to move north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later today. The system should turn northward with a gradual increase in forward speed as it moves through the weakness in around 48 hours. Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward on the southern side of the trough. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to the model consensus. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on the exact forecast track. A relatively small deviation to the left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or over the coastline. Key Messages: 1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 26.9N 78.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 27.5N 78.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 28.5N 79.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 29.9N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 34.3N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 39.0N 69.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40

2019-09-03 10:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 030853 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 59(59) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 55(55) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 8(37) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) X(36) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) X(31) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 18(34) X(34) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 22(38) X(38) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 22(49) X(49) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) X(16) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 3(26) X(26) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 7(37) X(37) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 59(64) 20(84) X(84) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 28(58) X(58) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) X(30) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 38(46) 2(48) X(48) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 61(67) 9(76) X(76) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 65(79) 7(86) X(86) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 12(59) X(59) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) X(35) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 65(81) 5(86) X(86) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 9(58) X(58) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 7(33) X(33) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 68(79) 3(82) X(82) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 3(45) X(45) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 66(79) 2(81) X(81) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 2(45) X(45) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 47(93) 1(94) X(94) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 62(68) 1(69) X(69) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 36(53) 1(54) X(54) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 56(82) 1(83) X(83) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 1(47) X(47) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 44(55) 36(91) 1(92) X(92) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 50(62) X(62) X(62) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 39(83) 1(84) X(84) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 39(50) X(50) X(50) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 46(55) 23(78) X(78) X(78) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 25(41) X(41) X(41) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 39(53) 13(66) X(66) X(66) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 30(47) 8(55) X(55) X(55) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 3( 5) 35(40) 14(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 9(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 16(18) 56(74) 9(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 4( 6) 31(37) 9(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 2 3( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 40(43) 25(68) 2(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) DAYTONA BEACH 50 1 2( 3) 12(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 2 6( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) THE VILLAGES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 3 29(32) 8(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) ORLANDO FL 50 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 63 29(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 28(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) COCOA BEACH FL 64 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 37 43(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) PATRICK AFB 50 1 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PATRICK AFB 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 86 7(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) FT PIERCE FL 50 7 16(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 74 3(77) 1(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) W PALM BEACH 50 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 28 5(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) FT LAUDERDALE 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VENICE FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 4( 6) 9(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 40

2019-09-03 10:53:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030853 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING... ...CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana FL to Savannah River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL * Savannah River to South Santee River SC A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Altamaha Sound GA A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A wind gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently reported at Juno Beach Pier, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday. In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning. Along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 40

2019-09-03 10:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030852 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LANTANA FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO SOUTH OF LANTANA FL * SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FL TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.5N 78.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.5N 79.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.9N 79.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.3N 76.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 39.0N 69.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 78.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Dorian Update Statement

2019-09-03 09:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 030756 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 400 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DORIAN'S SOUTHERN EYEWALL PLANTED OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they continue to experience Dorian's eyewall. Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 150 mph - Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through today. SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg

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