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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 41

2019-09-03 16:51:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031451 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to move northwestward, but dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge will continue over Grand Bahama Island for much of today. The eye has become cloud filled in infrared and visible satellite imagery. While aircraft and radar data indicate that the eye has increased in size, it is also a bit more ragged. Recent reports from reconnaissance aircraft and data buoys indicate that overall wind field of the hurricane is slowly expanding, while the peak winds have come down a little more. The latest reports from the aircraft support an initial intensity of 95 kt. As Dorian moves near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little overall change in intensity is anticipated. After that time, increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size. The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt. A shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to amplify a deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United States on Wednesday. This should allow Dorian to begin moving slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours, followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over the coasts of South and North Carolina. After moving offshore of the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate northeastward. The NHC track is along the western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours, closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF models. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the Florida east coast. The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches and warnings along the southeastern United States coast. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 27.1N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 32.1N 79.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 35.3N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 48.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2019-09-03 16:51:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 14:51:31 GMT

Tags: map storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41

2019-09-03 16:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 031451 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 67(67) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 65(65) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 71(72) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 64(67) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 20(39) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) X(27) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) X(37) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 5(31) X(31) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 5(35) X(35) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 5(38) X(38) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 4(50) X(50) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 1(39) X(39) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 73(83) 4(87) X(87) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 59(59) 4(63) X(63) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 4(38) X(38) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 34(50) X(50) X(50) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 68(79) 1(80) X(80) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) X(43) X(43) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 63(88) 1(89) X(89) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 63(64) 1(65) X(65) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 1(42) X(42) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 61(89) 1(90) X(90) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 61(63) 1(64) X(64) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 59(83) 1(84) X(84) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 47(50) X(50) X(50) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 54(84) X(84) X(84) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) X(50) X(50) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 45(66) 28(94) X(94) X(94) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 53(72) X(72) X(72) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) X(47) X(47) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 28(34) 23(57) X(57) X(57) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 11(31) X(31) X(31) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 44(51) 35(86) X(86) X(86) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 39(51) X(51) X(51) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 5( 5) 24(29) 48(77) 17(94) X(94) X(94) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 37(67) X(67) X(67) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) X(38) X(38) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 54(71) 17(88) X(88) X(88) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 27(55) X(55) X(55) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 43(77) 8(85) X(85) X(85) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 12(45) X(45) X(45) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 4( 5) 37(42) 28(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 3( 5) 38(43) 18(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 8(10) 43(53) 5(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 2( 4) 13(17) 5(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 39(42) 37(79) 4(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 3( 3) 21(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 8(10) 31(41) 4(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) DAYTONA BEACH 34 7 46(53) 7(60) 1(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) DAYTONA BEACH 50 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ORLANDO FL 34 8 15(23) 3(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ORLANDO FL 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 83 8(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) COCOA BEACH FL 50 6 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 69 10(79) 1(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) PATRICK AFB 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 88 2(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) FT PIERCE FL 50 10 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 53 2(55) 2(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) W PALM BEACH 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 12 4(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 41

2019-09-03 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031450 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE... ...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of South Carolina from north of Edisto Beach to the South Santee River. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of South Santee River to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended north to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter Inlet, Florida. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Lantana, Florida has been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet FL to South Santee River SC A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River SC to Cape Lookout NC A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL * North of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC * North of South Santee River SC to Duck NC * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 78.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night. Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue on Grand Bahama Island through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as Wednesday and could spread northward within the watch through Thursday. In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line FL...3 to 5 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 41

2019-09-03 16:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031449 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LANTANA FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET FL TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO EDISTO BEACH SC * NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO DUCK NC * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO EDISTO BEACH SC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 78.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 100SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 78.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.1N 79.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.3N 75.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 48.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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