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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Graphics
2019-09-22 16:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 14:35:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 14:35:03 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-09-22 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221432 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The poorly defined center of what is left of Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning to the northwest of Guaymas. The system has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure accompanied by a few showers. The low is expected to move farther inland and dissipate tonight or early Monday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.8N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2019-09-22 16:31:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221431 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-22 16:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 28.8, -111.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Public Advisory Number 21
2019-09-22 16:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 111.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning. At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of the disturbance was estimated near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 111.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion will continue to bring the disturbance farther inland until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds associated with this system are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Dissipation is expected tonight or early Monday. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Avila
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