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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-22 04:37:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:37:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:44:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2019-09-22 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 476 FOPZ15 KNHC 220236 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GUAYMAS 34 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-22 04:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220236 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave overpasses helped locate the center of Lorena, which was hidden under a band of cirrus clouds, over the Gulf of California southwest of Guymas. The system was devoid of convection for several hours. However, a new burst of convection has recently formed just northeast of the center. There is little data near the central core, so the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. Lorena should make landfall over northwestern Mexico during the next several hours, then rapidly weaken over the mountainous terrain and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning. The microwave data indicate that Lorena is continuing to move just west of due north or 355/10 kt. A general northward or perhaps north-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory track. Key Messages: 1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora Saturday night and Sunday. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday. 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-22 04:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 27.6, -111.2 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-09-22 04:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 169 WTPZ25 KNHC 220236 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 111.2W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 111.2W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 111.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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