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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 19

2019-09-22 04:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 170 WTPZ35 KNHC 220236 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 111.2W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 111.2 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours or so. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next several hours, followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is expected to weaken, and the system is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Rainfall: Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less than one inch over Baja California Sur through Sunday. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics

2019-09-22 01:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 23:41:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:44:35 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

2019-09-22 01:40:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 6:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 27.1, -111.0 with movement N at 11 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 18A

2019-09-22 01:40:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 600 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 103 WTPZ35 KNHC 212340 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 111.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF MULEGE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 111.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 11 mph (18 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward across the Gulf of California this evening and reach the tropical storm warning area later tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday night: Sonora...3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches. East coast of Baja California Sur and Northwest Sinaloa...additional 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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