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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Graphics

2021-10-10 16:42:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Oct 2021 14:42:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Oct 2021 15:22:40 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162021)

2021-10-10 16:40:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...COULD IMPACT A PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.8, -104.7 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 2

2021-10-10 16:40:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...COULD IMPACT A PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 104.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 104.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the system will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Tuesday night and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2021-10-10 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 101440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) 13(67) X(67) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) X(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 17(68) X(68) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32) X(32) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 59(65) X(65) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25(29) 12(41) X(41) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 44(63) X(63) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 15N 105W 34 55 X(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 X 9( 9) 14(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 32(41) 48(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 52(60) 1(61) X(61) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 44(61) 19(80) X(80) X(80) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 21(41) X(41) X(41) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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