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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-08-28 16:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 968 WTPZ41 KNHC 281440 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 Since the previous scatterometer pass around 0430 UTC, the satellite presentation has improved significantly. The cloud pattern now consists of a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands, with the center of the system located on the northeastern edge of a circular area of thunderstorms, as indicated by a GMI microwave pass at 1201 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively, on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has plenty of time to intensify given that the environmental conditions of warm ocean and light shear are expected to prevail during the next 5 days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a hurricane in about 2 days with additional strengthening thereafter. The forecast is very close to the intensity consensus model, and follows the trend of most of the guidance. Since genesis has just occurred, the initial motion is somewhat uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge of a subtropical high, and this flow pattern will continue to steer the depression on the same general track during the next day or two. After that time, the nose of the ridge is expected to amplify, and will force the cyclone to turn toward the west or even west-southwest. This is very consistent with the track guidance, and the NHC forecast lies in between the HCCA corrected consensus model and the other consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.1N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2018-08-28 16:40:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 952 FOPZ11 KNHC 281440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 2 57(59) 15(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA CLARION 50 X 12(12) 11(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X 13(13) 18(31) 5(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 35(62) 3(65) X(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 1(26) X(26) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 8(33) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40) 3(43) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162018)

2018-08-28 16:40:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 17.1, -111.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

2018-08-28 16:40:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 928 WTPZ31 KNHC 281440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 111.8W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 111.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the west thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or on Wednesday, and a hurricane by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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