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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2020-09-13 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 130236 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 45(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA CLARION 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 22(24) 35(59) 3(62) X(62) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 1(24) X(24) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Graphics

2019-09-29 01:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 23:44:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 21:31:41 GMT

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162019)

2019-09-29 01:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 15.1, -100.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 2A

2019-09-29 01:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282344 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 100.3W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 100.3 West. The system has been meandering during the day, but it should begin to move toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) tonight. This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, this system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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