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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162019)

2019-09-28 16:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.9, -100.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

2019-09-28 16:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281451 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. This track should bring the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. The disturbance is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2019-09-28 16:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281451 PWSEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 34 X 5( 5) 28(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2019-09-28 16:50:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281450 TCMEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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