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Tropical Depression Ignacio Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-03 16:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 031432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...IGNACIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 116.7W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 116.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slower northward motion is forecast today, followed by slow northeastward or eastward motion tonight before dissipation on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-03 16:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 031432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 116.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 116.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Graphics
2021-08-03 10:48:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 08:48:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 09:28:53 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030847 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Strong east-northeasterly shear has continued to take a toll on Ignacio overnight with a small cluster of remaining deep convection now displaced over 60 n mi to the southwest of the center. An ASCAT overpass that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory indicates that Ignacio has weakened to a tropical depression with peak winds of around 30 kt. That is also supported by a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The strong shear and marginal SSTs should continue to cause gradual weakening over the next 12-24 hours, and Ignacio is expected to become a remnant low Tuesday night. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all show the remnant low opening up into a trough of low pressure shortly thereafter, and so does the official forecast. Ignacio is moving slower toward the northwest than before, or about 315/5 kt. A further reduction in forward speed is predicted over the next 12-24 hours as Ignacio weakens and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The track guidance again suggests that the remnant low will turn northeastward before dissipating, and the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.2N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ignacio (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IGNACIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TUESDAY NIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Ignacio was located near 20.1, -116.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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