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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Graphics
2021-08-04 04:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 02:37:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 02:37:24 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-04 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040236 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Ignacio consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and has been devoid of deep convection anywhere near its center since this morning. Therefore the system no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone and is now a remnant low, or a post-tropical cyclone. The low has been moving east-southeastward, or about 120/6 kt. A turn toward the southeast and south is expected on Wednesday while the system moves around the northern side of a low-level ridge. Although the low will be moving over slightly warmer waters, strong easterly shear should prevent regeneration, and the system should dissipate in 24 h or so. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ignacio. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.1N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/1200Z 19.6N 114.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-04 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IGNACIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Ignacio was located near 20.1, -115.0 with movement ESE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-04 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 040235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...IGNACIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 115.0W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 115.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast and south is expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-04 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 040235 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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