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Tropical Storm Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-02 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 022033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Ignacio Graphics
2021-08-02 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 14:34:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 14:34:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-02 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 021433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 A large burst of deep convection has developed near the center and over most of the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone. Recent subjective satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are 37 kt and 39 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 35 kt, making the system the ninth tropical storm of the 2021 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Storm Ignacio has continued to move west-northwestward, and the initial motion estimate is 295/08 kt. Both the track forecast and synoptic reasoning remain unchanged for this advisory. Ignacio is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion, wedged between a strong mid-/upper-level ridge to the north and Hurricane Hilda to the southwest throughout the 48-hour forecast period. The new track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models. Ignacio is likely near its peak intensity given that northeasterly vertical wind shear of 18-20 kt is expected to keep the strongest convection displaced away from the strongest surface winds that are likely occurring in the northeastern semicircle. By 24 hours or so, Ignacio will be moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and into even stronger wind shear, which should induce steady weakening, with dissipation expected by 60 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.8N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 20.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ignacio (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 2 the center of Ignacio was located near 18.3, -114.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 021432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ignacio Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 114.0W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 114.0 West. Ignacio is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or Tuesday morning, and Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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