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Tropical Storm Ignacio Graphics
2021-08-02 22:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 20:34:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 21:28:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-02 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 Ignacio appears to have peaked in intensity, with moderate-to- strong northeasterly vertical wind shear having displaced most of the deep convection into the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone. The latest subjective satellite current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at T2.5/35 kt, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are 37 kt and 38 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the intensity has been held at 35 kt, which could be generous. The center of Ignacio passed 15-20 nmi northeast of Clarion Island, Mexico, where the pressure fell to 1006.5 mb around 1400 UTC and the highest winds measured were sustained 22 kt gusting to 33 kt according to a Mexican navy observing station on the island. A pronounced wind shift from the northeast to the southwest and west was also noted in the wind data. However, wind speeds have been steadily decreasing over the past several hours, an indication that the strongest winds are likely occurring in the northeastern quadrant. Unfortunately, all three ASCAT passes again missed the center and the strongest winds associated with Ignacio. The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. No significant changes were required to the previous track forecast. Ignacio is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion between a strong mid-/upper-level ridge to the north and Hurricane Hilda to the southwest throughout the short forecast period. The new advisory track forecast is similar the previous forecast track, and lies along the left side of the consensus track models envelope. Ignacio is expected to gradually weaken during the next 48 hours due to steadily increasing northeasterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt by 24 hours and beyond. By 18-24 hours, Ignacio will be moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, which will act to hasten the weakening process, with dissipation expected by 60 hours, if not sooner. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.4N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 21.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 21.2N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ignacio (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-02 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IGNACIO EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... ...WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 2 the center of Ignacio was located near 18.8, -114.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-02 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 022033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ignacio Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...IGNACIO EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... ...WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 114.9W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 114.9 West. Ignacio is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later tonight, and Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-02 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 022033 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.9W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.9W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N 117.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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