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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-10-26 03:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260244 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 The tropical storm continues to produce deep convection on its south side, with the low-level center estimated to be near the northern edge of the thunderstorms. The last pass from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters a few hours ago indicated that the minimum pressure had fallen to 997 mb, and since the storm appears better organized than before the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. This intensity estimate is slightly above the latest Dvorak numbers. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are planning to be in Zeta again overnight and that data will be helpful in assessing the storm's intensity and structure. Zeta has not moved much during the past several hours, and the initial motion is a very slow north-northwest drift. As ridging begins to build over and near Florida, Zeta is forecast to move faster to the northwest overnight and Monday, and that should take the center of the cyclone near or over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 24 hours. The ridge is then expected to shift eastward over the western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday as a large and quite powerful mid- to upper-level low moves eastward across the southwest and south-central United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause Zeta to accelerate northward toward the northern Gulf Coast, and likely make landfall there on Wednesday. The models remain in poor agreement on the details of the evolution of the steering pattern and consequently, there is about a 300 n mi spread in the landfall locations from the various models, which currently spans the region from the far western Florida panhandle to western Louisiana. The NHC track forecast is a little west of the previous one trending toward the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the poor model agreement, the confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal. It is hoped that data being collected by the NOAA Gulfstream jet flying around Zeta and special NWS weather balloon launches will help the models come into better agreement on the future track of Zeta soon. Given the low wind shear conditions, moist air mass, and high oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, steady strengthening seems likely until Zeta reaches the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. The cyclone is expected to be a hurricane at landfall in Mexico, and the new forecast shows a slightly higher intensity there based on the new models and favorable conditions. The models differ on how long the core of Zeta will be inland over the Yucatan, but in general, it seems likely that significant weakening won't occur given the storm's expected increasing forward speed. The overall environmental conditions are anticipated to remain generally favorable while Zeta moves across the southern Gulf of Mexico, but there should be an increase in shear when it reaches the central Gulf and the cyclone will then be moving over the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf. The combination of the stronger shear and cooler waters should cause Zeta to level off in strength and perhaps weaken slightly before the U.S. landfall. The intensity models are in fair agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba on Monday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 18.1N 83.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 20.2N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 21.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 27.1N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 31.1N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0000Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-10-26 03:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 260244 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) X(27) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) X(28) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 9(38) X(38) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 7(44) X(44) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 5(43) X(43) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 5(48) X(48) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 1(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 3(45) X(45) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) X(36) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 3 70(73) 18(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) COZUMEL MX 50 X 47(47) 23(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) COZUMEL MX 64 X 20(20) 17(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BELIZE CITY 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANAJA 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 23(26) 5(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31) X(31) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 6(47) X(47) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-26 03:44:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 the center of Zeta was located near 18.1, -83.8 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 6
2020-10-26 03:44:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260244 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 83.8W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) but a faster northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches possible across Southern Florida and the Keys through Tuesday, with isolated storm total accumulations of 8 inches. Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of the U.S. Gulf Coast and the southern U.S. near and in advance of Zeta. Heavy rainfall will spread north into the Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta late in the week. The expected rainfall could lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-26 03:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260243 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 83.8W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 83.8W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 83.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 84.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 86.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.8N 88.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 91.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.1N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 38.7N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 83.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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