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Tag: zeta

Hurricane Zeta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2020-10-26 22:14:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 21:14:04 GMT

Tags: graphics storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Zeta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2020-10-26 21:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 20:51:27 GMT

Tags: map storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-10-26 21:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262049 TCDAT3 Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 The cloud pattern of Zeta became better organized today, with deep convection forming over and around the center and some banding features developing. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters recently found surface winds to near 70 kt over the inner northeastern quadrant of the circulation and a central pressure of around 981 mb, signifying that the system had become a hurricane. Given the increased organization over very warm waters, some additional strengthening is possible before the center crosses the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Some weakening should occur while Zeta interacts with land tonight and early Tuesday. Once the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for some re-strengthening. When Zeta moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico later on Wednesday, cooler shelf waters and some increase in southwesterly shear should halt the intensification process, with some weakening possible by the time the center reaches the northern Gulf Coast, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is near or above the model consensus. The hurricane continues to move on a generally northwestward track, or at about 305/10 kt. There are basically no changes to the track forecast reasoning, or to the forecast itself. For the next couple of days, Zeta should move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered just east of Florida. Thereafter, a shortwave trough approaching from the west is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward and move over the southeastern and eastern United States. The system should move off the northeast U.S. coast and become an extratropical cyclone within the next 4 days. The guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday, and the official track forecast is very close to the corrected model consensus, HCCA. Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for a portion of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening through early Tuesday. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Zeta Graphics

2020-10-26 21:44:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 20:44:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 21:25:39 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane hurricane graphics graphics hurricane

Hurricane Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2020-10-26 21:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 262041 PWSAT3 HURRICANE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 1(37) X(37) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 1(39) X(39) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) X(47) X(47) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) X(48) X(48) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 54(56) X(56) X(56) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 54(57) X(57) X(57) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) X(54) X(54) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 56(63) X(63) X(63) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 34(63) X(63) X(63) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) X(49) X(49) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 46(54) 21(75) X(75) X(75) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 21(41) X(41) X(41) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) X(27) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) X(19) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 8 43(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MERIDA MX 50 2 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MERIDA MX 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) COZUMEL MX 64 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BELIZE CITY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) X(51) X(51) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 56(63) X(63) X(63) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

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