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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-25 22:28:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 21:28:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 20:58:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-10-25 21:55:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252055 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Although the overall cloud pattern of Zeta is still not very well organized, with a lack of distinct banding features, it continues to generate very intense deep convection mainly over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Moreover, in spite of its ragged appearance, the storm has strengthened today. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system this afternoon indicate that, based on adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds, the intensity has increased to near 45 kt and the central pressure has fallen to 999 mb. Since the storm will be moving over the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and in a moist environment with low vertical shear through Monday, strengthening is forecast and Zeta will likely become a hurricane before it nears the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or so. After Zeta moves into the Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear is likely to increase and oceanic heat content below the cyclone will diminish, especially when the system approaches the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday. Therefore, no strengthening is forecast in 2-3 days and Zeta could be weakening by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast. However, the intensity forecast is still subject to significant uncertainty. The center has been meandering this afternoon, and apparently has reformed nearer to the deep convection over the southeastern quadrant. Since this is not considered representative of larger-scale motion, the system is still considered to be quasi-stationary at this time. However, the track guidance is in agreement that Zeta will move northwestward over the next 1-2 days, passing near or over the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, the cyclone is likely to turn north-northwestward to northward while it moves on the western side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone near Florida. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected when Zeta nears the northern Gulf coast, due to an approaching shortwave trough. The track guidance has more than the usual amount of spread at the 72-hour time frame, with the ECMWF and the GFS predictions being about 300 miles apart near the northern Gulf coast. The official forecast track lies between these 2 solutions, and is similar to the previous NHC track. However, given the inherent uncertainties, one should not focus on the exact forecast track. Based on the new intensity forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Yucatan peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba on Monday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 3. Zeta is forecast to be at or just below hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.7N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.7N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.7N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z 23.2N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 25.7N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 29.4N 90.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-25 19:06:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 18:06:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 15:32:54 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-25 18:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 the center of Zeta was located near 18.0, -84.0 with movement Nearly stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-10-25 18:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251754 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 84.0W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 84.0 West. Zeta is meandering or nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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