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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-05 04:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-04 22:35:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 Satellite images today indicate that the system has been maintaining two hooking bands of convection to the north and south of the center. In addition, scatterometer data shows a well-defined, albeit a touch elongated, center and 30-kt winds. Thus, advisories are being re-started on Tropical Depression Nine-E after a 3-day hiatus, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression probably only has a few days as a tropical cyclone again because SSTs begin to drop off in a day or so, along with increasing shear and mid-level dry air. Nine-E does have a chance to finally become a tropical storm in the meantime before the aforementioned environmental conditions get less conducive on Friday. The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low again this weekend (or sooner) as it encounters a very hostile environment. The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the model consensus, but is a smidge higher near peak intensity, owing to the HCCA corrected-consensus guidance. The depression has been moving slowly toward the north-northwest today. A distant mid-level ridge to the northeast is providing the steering for the cyclone. This ridge should strengthen somewhat during the next few days, causing the depression to gradually turn to the northwest on Thursday and continue that motion through late week. Similar to a lot of forecasts this year, the GFS-based guidance is on the right side of the track envelope while the ECMWF and UKMET solutions lie on the left side. The official track assumes that the GFS shows a bit too deep of a tropical cyclone, and so the NHC prediction leans just west of the consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.9N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.6N 136.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.5N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.4N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 19.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 21.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-08-04 22:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 20:32:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 20:32:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-04 22:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 042032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-04 22:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION REGENERATES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE BASIN... ...COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Aug 4 the center of Nine-E was located near 14.9, -135.7 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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