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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-07-31 16:48:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 14:48:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 14:48:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-31 16:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 798 WTPZ44 KNHC 311447 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 The depression has become increasingly elongated west-to-east since the previous advisory. Although deep convection has increased somewhat near the center, with cloud tops now colder than -70C, the convection isn't organized very well. The initial intensity is being maintained at 25 kt until new ASCAT data arrives this afternoon. The initial motion estimate is 270/04 kt. The latest NHC track guidance is in decent agreement on the depression moving in a slow westward direction for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion as the ridge to north of the cyclone weakens slightly. By around 72 hours, some binary interaction between the depression and rapidly strengthening Tropical Storm Hilda, located about 650 nmi to the east, is expected. However, the degree of interaction varies widely among the models. The GFS is the most extreme and takes the depression northward on days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF being the weakest, showing little if any interaction and keeps the cyclone moving generally westward through 120 h; the other global and regional models lie somewhere in between these two extremes. For now, the new official NHC track forecast was only nudged slightly northward, and lies inside the southern edge of the guidance envelope near the TVCE consensus model. The depression's future intensity and existence depends heavily on the track over the next 5 days. A more westward motion would keep the cyclone over warmer water and in a better upper-level flow regime. In contrast, a sharp northward motion, as per the GFS solution, would place the system over colder water and within strong vertical wind shear. Another negative factor is the effect of intensifying Hilda to the east, which has started to draw in the southerly/southwesterly cross-equatorial inflow away from TD-9E. This deflection of the low-level flow eastward away from the depression could result in the cyclone's cyclone getting stretched out/elongated east-to-west even further, which would induce weakening or even dissipation of the cyclone. For now, the previous intensity forecast is being maintained for this advisory until the track model guidance comes into better agreement, and the interactive effects of Tropical Storm Hilda become clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 12.1N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 12.1N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 12.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 12.5N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 12.8N 133.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 13.8N 137.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 15.5N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)
2021-07-31 16:46:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION DAWDLING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 the center of Nine-E was located near 12.1, -127.6 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 4
2021-07-31 16:46:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 891 WTPZ34 KNHC 311446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION DAWDLING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 127.6W ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 127.6 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general westward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little if any intensification is expected today. However, some slight strengthening is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-07-31 16:46:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 890 WTPZ24 KNHC 311446 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 127.6W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 127.6W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 128.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.3N 130.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.5N 132.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.8N 133.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 13.8N 137.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N 139.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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