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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010838 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 127.5W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 127.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is stationary. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system unless regeneration occurs. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010838 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 665 WTPZ24 KNHC 010837 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 127.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-08-01 04:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 02:42:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 02:42:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-01 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010241 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 The tropical depression's classification as a tropical cyclone is in doubt. It has not produced sustained organized deep convection for over a day and is nearly devoid of even moderate convection at this time. In addition, the surface wind field is poorly defined. A prominent swirl noted in the previous forecast package moved quickly southeastward and dissipated, leaving only a broad, elongated low centered east of previous estimates. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix still supports an intensity of 25 kt. If organized deep convection does not redevelop soon, the system could become a remnant low or open into a trough at any time. Even if the depression is able to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone, the close proximity of rapidly intensifying Hilda to the east will likely prevent it from strengthening during the next 72 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC intensity forecast. After that time, Hilda is forecast to weaken, which could open a window for intensification (or re-formation) late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is now below the intensity consensus at most forecast hours. It is worth noting that the operational regional hurricane models do not capture storm-to-storm interactions very well, and this is likely influencing the relatively high intensity forecast produced by the HWRF. The eastward adjustment of the initial position has necessitated a large eastward shift in the forecast track based on the new center position. Otherwise, the general reasoning behind the NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. A slow, westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. Beyond that time, differences regarding the specifics of any direct interaction with Hilda is the primary source of uncertainty in the track forecast. Confidence in the forecast, especially at that long range, remains low. The NHC forecast is based primarily on a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 11.8N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 12.2N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 12.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 12.9N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 13.5N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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