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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-09 10:44:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 158 WTPZ43 KNHC 090844 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 Deep convection has continued to increase near and to the north and east of Kristy's center, and cirrus outflow has expanded some in all quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates supported an intensity of 40 kt at 0600 UTC, but the recent increase in convection, along with a Dvorak estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T2.9/43 kt, justify increasing the advisory intensity to 45 kt. Kristy has turned to north-northwest and is now moving 345/05 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn toward the north later today, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast or northeast in the 24-48 h time period as Kristy and much larger Tropical Storm John undergo some weak binary interaction. However, the two cyclones separate by 72 h as John weakens over cold waters and its influence on Kristy diminishes, resulting in a turn to the north. By 96 h and beyond, Kristy will also be located over much colder water and is expected to have degenerated into a shallow remnant low pressure, becoming steered more westward by the deep-layer easterly trade wind flow. There remains considerable divergence among the global and regional hurricane models, with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models keeping Kristy moving northward after 72 h, and the ECMWF and UKMET models moving Kristy westward. The guidance envelope has shifted markedly to the right of the previous forecast track, and the new official forecast track has also been shifted in that direction. However, the new track forecast was not shifted as far east as the consensus models HCCA and FSSE, out of respect for the reliable ECMWF model. There is a narrow window of opportunity of about 24 h for Kristy to strengthen a little more while the cyclone remains over SSTs of 26-26.5 deg C and in a low-shear environment. After that time, however, cooler waters and the entrainment of much drier mid-level air is expected to induce steady weakening through the remainder of the forecast period, with the cyclone becoming post-tropical by 72 h, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model IVCN through 24 h, and then is a little lower than IVCN after that due to Kristy moving over sub-25 deg C SSTs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.8N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.5N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.7N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.8N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.4N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0600Z 22.8N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 23.5N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-08-09 10:44:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 789 FOPZ13 KNHC 090844 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 15N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-09 10:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 9 the center of Kristy was located near 15.8, -130.1 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 10
2018-08-09 10:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 533 WTPZ33 KNHC 090843 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 ...KRISTY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 130.1W ABOUT 1405 MI...2255 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 130.1 West. Kristy is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by this afternoon, and a general northward motion is forecast to continue for a few days thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible during the next 24 hours, but gradual weakening should begin by late Friday and continue into Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-08-09 10:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 534 WTPZ23 KNHC 090843 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 130.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 130.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 130.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.5N 130.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 129.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 129.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 128.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.8N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 23.5N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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