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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-10 16:40:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Aug 2018 14:40:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Aug 2018 15:39:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-08-10 16:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 207 WTPZ43 KNHC 101439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy appears to have at least maintained its strength over the past several hours. A partial hit from the AMSR instrument at 0950 UTC indicated a closed or nearly-closed mid-level eye was present, and this feature was still apparent in SSMI imagery a few hours later. Convection near Kristy's center has also recovered after a brief decrease earlier this morning. There is a large spread in the latest satellite intensity estimates. Objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 50 kt, while the latest subjective Dvorak classification from SAB supports an intensity of 77 kt. The initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise between the various estimates, but this estimate is perhaps more uncertain than usual. In the short term, Kristy still has a brief period to maintain its intensity for about 12 hours while the shear is low and it remains over marginally warm SSTs around 26C. In fact, I can't rule out that Kristy could briefly become a hurricane later today. Beginning tomorrow, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters, and steady weakening should begin. The intensity guidance is in very good agreement on this solution for 24 hours and beyond. By early next week, the tropical storm will likely lose all convection and become a remnant low, while continuing to gradually spin down over sub-24C waters. The initial motion is now 010/8 kt. Kristy should continue moving generally northward for the next couple of days, towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by John and to the east of a large upper-level trough located over the central Pacific. Once the cyclone becomes a remnant low, it should turn gradually westward, steered by the low-level flow. Even the GFS no longer shows any significant interaction between Kristy and the remnants of John, so the NHC forecast has shifted substantially southwestward by the end of the forecast period, close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Additional adjustments in this direction may be required if it becomes clear that Kristy will weaken sooner than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.9N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.9N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.9N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 21.6N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 22.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 23.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 24.0N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-10 16:38:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY MAINTAINING STRENGTH BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 the center of Kristy was located near 18.9, -129.8 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 15
2018-08-10 16:38:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 817 WTPZ33 KNHC 101438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 ...KRISTY MAINTAINING STRENGTH BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 129.8W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 129.8 West. Kristy is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Kristy is then forecast to gradually turn toward the northwest by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, however there is a chance that Kristy could briefly become a hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is expected to begin tonight, and Kristy is forecast to become a remnant low by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-08-10 16:38:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 838 FOPZ13 KNHC 101438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 93 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 20N 130W 50 26 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 130W 64 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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