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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2018-08-09 16:31:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 445 FOPZ13 KNHC 091431 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 24(28) 10(38) 2(40) X(40) 1(41) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 11

2018-08-09 16:31:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 574 WTPZ23 KNHC 091430 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 130.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 130.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 130.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 25.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 130.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)

2018-08-09 16:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KRISTY STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 9 the center of Kristy was located near 16.1, -130.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 11

2018-08-09 16:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 458 WTPZ33 KNHC 091430 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 ...KRISTY STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 130.3W ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 130.3 West. Kristy is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today or Friday, followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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