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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-09 04:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 762 WTPZ43 KNHC 090240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 Deep convection associated with Kristy has increased near and to the east of the center during the past few hours. However, microwave images still show that the convective pattern is not symmetric due to westerly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level low to the north-northeast of the cyclone. The satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is again held at 40 kt for this advisory. Kristy will likely have an opportunity to strengthen some during the next day or two while it pulls away from the mid- to upper-level low and remains over relatively warm water. In about 48 hours, however, Kristy is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm. These cooler waters along the forecast track and a more stable environment should end the opportunity for strengthening and result in a gradual weakening trend. The intensity models remain quite divergent, with the SHIPS and LGEM models showing little or no strengthening while the HWRF model predicts Kristy to reach hurricane intensity. The NHC intensity forecast lies between these scenarios and is in best agreement with the intensity model consensus. This forecast shows Kristy becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 when the system is expected to be over 23 degree C SSTs. The tropical storm has turned northwestward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 315/6 kt. A turn to the north is expected on Thursday as Kristy gets drawn toward the larger and stronger Hurricane John. The spread in the models remains really large with the GFS and HWRF models showing Kristy moving northeastward and even merging with John. Conversely, the ECMWF and UKMET models show a northward and then more westward motion when Kristy becomes a weak and shallow system in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right, but it remains to the west of the consensus models in favor of the UKMET and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 19.2N 129.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-08-09 04:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 303 FOPZ13 KNHC 090240 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 17 3(20) 1(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 27(36) 15(51) 1(52) X(52) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-09 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 8 the center of Kristy was located near 15.3, -130.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 9
2018-08-09 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 816 WTPZ33 KNHC 090239 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 ...KRISTY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 130.0W ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 130.0 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Thursday, and a general northward motion is forecast to continue for a few days thereafter. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but gradual weakening should begin by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-08-09 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 818 WTPZ23 KNHC 090239 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 130.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 130.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 129.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.2N 129.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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