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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 27
2019-09-07 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072034 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 129.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2019-09-07 16:50:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 14:50:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 15:38:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 26
2019-09-07 16:46:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071446 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 The last bit of Juliette's deep convection--using -50C cloud tops as a proxy--dissipated around 0400 UTC. Although it's likely that the storm's winds are decreasing, recent satellite estimates range from 25 kt from SAB to 45 kt from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory. Although Juliette is now departing a minimum in sea surface temperatures (23-24C), ocean waters ahead of the system will remain below 26C for the next 3 days or so. In addition, west- southwesterly vertical shear will be increasing substantially by 48 hours. If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, Juliette will become a post-tropical cyclone later today, and then maintain that status with surface winds gradually decreasing over the next several days. The low should open up into a trough around day 5. The initial motion is 280/10 kt. Now that the cyclone has become shallow, it is expected to be steered generally westward by the low-level trade winds. The track models are in good agreement on the future track of Juliette through day 4, and no appreciable changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.2N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-07 16:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Sep 7 the center of Juliette was located near 24.2, -128.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Juliette Public Advisory Number 26
2019-09-07 16:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...JULIETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 128.4W ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 128.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Juliette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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